First Hours of a Nuclear Attack; and People Watching
"We assume that the more arguments we give, the better our case. In reality, our weakest arguments dilute the strongest. Generally, you’ll only be as convincing as your worst point, so instead of making as many arguments as you can, make only the best." - Gurwinder Bhogal
What Would Happen in the First Few Hours of Nuclear War: Across the city a brilliant white light, thousands of times brighter than the desert sun at noon, floods the scene from above. Everyone who looks at it is blinded. Rebounding from clouds and within the atmosphere, the light is visible from hundreds of kilometers away, and even projects an unearthly glow through the curtains of the Oval Office and into the White House itself. The light contains both intense heat and a flux of neutrons and gamma rays that pulverizes the DNA of any living creatures not protected by several inches of concrete. Within a few hundredths of a second, a fireball roughly the width of Manhattan Island spreads across the tops of the buildings about 1.5km off the ground.
21 Observations from People Watching: I watch the person with the loudest laugh. The most striking thing isn't the volume—it's the feverish pitch. As the night goes on, it begins to sound more like desperation. Their joy has a fraying quality; it is exhausting to carry because it comes with a desire to seem happy and make others happy at all times... Look for unfounded apologies if you want to see how much someone believes in their right to exist. Look at the way they walk through a room, the way their shoulders are caved in or opened outward in relation to their ribcage, the way their eyes move to take in their surroundings, to see how much they believe in their belonging.
The Monty Hall Problem: The premise of the Monty Hall problem is simple. You’re on a game show. There are three doors. Behind one is a car; behind the other two, goats. You start by picking a door. The host, Monty Hall—who knows what’s behind each door—opens a different door, revealing a goat. He then offers you a choice: stick with your original pick or switch to the remaining unopened door... What should you do?
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This week, I met with Guneet Monga to understand everything about the business of movie making - economics, budget design, revenue streams, and how outsiders can enter the industry through the right channels. Watch it here.
